Climate predictions, a.k.a. seasonal forecasts, predict conditions for the next one-to-six-months via state-of-the-art climate models. But to use these forecasts to create robust planning, raw forecast data must be carefully transformed: climate predictions are radically different from short-range forecasts – misuse of the data is easy. Enter the ESD Seasonal Forecaster. Utilising published climate research methodology, and designed by post-doctoral climate scientists, the ESD Seasonal Forecaster transforms raw forecast data into bespoke, actionable data & information for your firm – either to drive onward impact modelling, or with which to make direct planning decisions. Tried and tested and already deployed with leading firms. Learn more below.
"Output from the Forecaster and our inhouse use of the data provides us with foresight to make necessary arrangements in terms of drought planning"
Climate predictions, a.k.a. seasonal forecasts, predict conditions for the next one-to-six-months via state-of-the-art climate models. But to use these forecasts to create robust planning, raw forecast data must be carefully transformed: climate predictions are radically different from short-range forecasts – misuse of the data is easy. Enter the ESD Seasonal Forecaster. Utilising published climate research methodology, and designed by post-doctoral climate scientists, the ESD Seasonal Forecaster transforms raw forecast data into bespoke, actionable data & information for your firm – either to drive onward impact modelling, or with which to make direct planning decisions. Tried and tested and already deployed with leading firms. Learn more below.
"Output from the Forecaster and our inhouse use of the data provides us with foresight to make necessary arrangements in terms of drought planning"
Climate predictions, a.k.a. seasonal forecasts, predict conditions over one-to-six-months using state-of-the-art climate models.
But to use these forecasts to create robust planning, raw forecast data must be carefully transformed: climate predictions are radically different from short-range forecasts – and it is easy to misuse the data.
Enter the ESD Seasonal Forecaster:
Utilising published research methodology, and designed by post-doctoral climate scientists, the ESD Seasonal Forecaster transforms raw forecast data into bespoke, actionable data & information for your firm – to drive onward impact modelling, or with which to make direct planning decisions. Tried and tested and already deployed with leading firms. Learn more below.
the traditional two-week forecast threshold. But climate predictions are a different kettle of fish to weather forecasts. They excel in projecting conditions over blocks of weeks, rather than for given days, and on larger geographical areas. How can organisations gain maximum benefit if they need information on daily scale, and at precise locations? The ESD Seasonal Forecaster uses research-backed techniques to bridge this gap. A combined downscaling and bias-correction engine, ESDV3 has been developed using world-class research methodology, and can produce projections derived from five of the world’s leading climate prediction models.
Modern climate models are showing promising skill in predicting conditions beyond the traditional two-week forecast threshold. But climate predictions are a different kettle of fish to weather forecasts. They excel in projecting conditions over blocks of weeks, rather than for given days, and on larger geographical areas. How can organisations gain maximum benefit if they need information on daily scale, and at precise locations? The ESD Seasonal Forecaster uses research-backed techniques to bridge this gap. A combined downscaling and bias-correction engine, ESDV3 has been developed using world-class research methodology, and can produce projections derived from five of the world’s leading climate prediction models.
Modern climate models show skill predicting conditions beyond the traditional two-week forecast threshold – but climate predictions are inherently different to weather forecasts.
They project conditions over blocks of weeks, rather than given days, and on larger geographical areas.
How can organisations gain maximum benefit if they need information on daily scale, and at precise locations?
The ESD Seasonal Forecaster uses research-backed techniques to bridge this gap.
A combined downscaling and bias-correction engine, ESDV3 has been developed using world-class research methodology, producing tailor-made, statistically robust projections derived from five of the world’s leading climate prediction models.
Enhancing spatial fidelity to enable superior climate planning:
Climate prediction models produce spatially-gridded data that is often too low resolution to adequately resolve user’s exposure areas – e.g. river basins or postcodes.
The ESD Seasonal Forecaster combines forecast data with high-fidelity national records, substantially improving the spatial resolution, whilst preserving the forecast signal. The process also removes model biases. The result is a statistically-refined forecast set at a fantastic geographical resolution, perfect to inform your planning response.
Climate predictions are produced on the native spatial grid of each base weather prediction model. These grids are often too low resolution to adequately resolve user’s exposure areas – e.g. river basins or ZIP code areas. The ESDV3 system combines these raw data with high-fidelity national records, using proven & published methods. This process substantially improves the spatial resolution, shown here for the United Kingdom, accounting for micro-climate properties: better resolution leads to better-formed planning decisions. Our downscaling technique also removes weather-forecasting model ‘biases’ – inherent tendencies of each forecasting system to be too warm/cold, dry, or wet compared to reality. The result is a ‘truer’ forecast product, enhancing the forecast signal and leading to better planning outcomes.
Version 3 of the Forecaster launched Nov. 2021 now provides a 51-member ensemble cloud of hydro-met data. We flag the ‘best’ worst’ case members within the full data set, allowing you to quickly foresee and plan for the best and worst-case conditions.
Climate predictions project average monthly conditions. Due to the chaotic nature of weather systems, meaningful daily predictions beyond 14 days isn’t possible. But effective planning & impact models need daily weather series. Producing these is a fine art – and one that ESDV3 excels at. Careful combination of raw forecasts with leading climate data, using trusted statistical methods developed by leading climate researchers, ensures physically plausible daily weather series at fantastic geographical resolutions, with no loss of forecast accuracy. ESDV3 leads the way in transforming climate predictions for you precise needs.
Version 3 of the Forecaster launched Nov. 2021 now provides a 51-member ensemble cloud of hydro-met data. We flag the ‘best’ worst’ case members within the full data set, allowing you to quickly foresee and plan for the best and worst-case conditions.
Climate predictions project average monthly conditions. Due to the chaotic nature of weather systems, meaningful daily predictions beyond 14 days isn’t possible. But effective planning & impact models need daily weather series. Producing these is a fine art – and one that ESDV3 excels at.
Careful combination of raw forecasts with leading climate data, using trusted statistical methods developed by leading climate researchers, ensures physically plausible daily weather series at fantastic geographical resolutions, with no loss of forecast accuracy. ESDV3 leads the way in transforming climate predictions for you precise needs.
Long-range forecasts are gaining skill but, naturally, are more uncertain at longer time scales. To account for this, multiple simulations can be performed producing a cloud of projections – ensemble forecasting – covering the spread of possibilities. From these, probabilities of the exact set of weather conditions that impact your organisation can be calculated. The ESD Seasonal Forecaster incorporates ensemble forecasting enabling us to quantify the risks that impact your specific exposure.
Long-range forecasts are gaining skill but, naturally, are more uncertain at longer time scales. To account for this, multiple simulations can be performed producing a cloud of projections – ensemble forecasting – covering the spread of possibilities. From these, probabilities of the exact set of weather conditions that impact your organisation can be calculated. The ESD Seasonal Forecaster incorporates ensemble forecasting enabling us to quantify the risks that impact your specific exposure.
Long-range forecasts are gaining skill but, naturally, are more uncertain at longer time scales. To account for this, multiple simulations can be performed producing a cloud of projections – ensemble forecasting – covering the spread of possibilities. From these, probabilities of the exact set of weather conditions that impact your organisation can be calculated. The ESD Seasonal Forecaster incorporates ensemble forecasting enabling us to quantify the risks that impact your specific exposure.
Tried and tested & the result of years of development, the ESD Seasonal Forecaster has already enabled award-winning industry solutions to help mitigate near-term climate risk. Don’t get left behind. The ESD Seasonal Forecaster is completely configurable to your needs. It does the technical heavy lifting and processing, providing you with plug-and-play output to inform your climate-planning. Global coverage, best-in-class. Contact us now to get started.
“Output from the Seasonal Forecaster is now incorporated into Anglian Water’s water resource situation report and combined with current resource assessments to determine the likelihood of short-term water shortages.”
Tried and tested & the result of years of development, the ESD Seasonal Forecaster has already enabled award-winning industry solutions to help mitigate near-term climate risk. Don’t get left behind. The ESD Seasonal Forecaster is completely configurable to your needs. It does the technical heavy lifting and processing, providing you with plug-and-play output to inform your climate-planning. Global coverage, best-in-class. Contact us now to get started.
“Output from the Seasonal Forecaster is now incorporated into Anglian Water’s water resource situation report and combined with current resource assessments to determine the likelihood of short-term water shortages.”
Tried and tested & the result of years of development, the ESD Seasonal Forecaster has already enabled award-winning industry solutions to help mitigate near-term climate risk. Don’t get left behind. The ESD Seasonal Forecaster is completely configurable to your needs. It does the technical heavy lifting and processing, providing you with plug-and-play output to inform your climate-planning. Global coverage, best-in-class. Contact us now to get started.