17.05.2023: PROJECTION WARNINGS FOR 1.5°C LIMIT BREACH
Pacific Ocean conditions are now transitioning to an El Nino state – which will impart a further warming upon the planet in the coming year, in addition to the background carbon-driven warming.
The prospects for remaining below the 1.5°C U.N. warming limit are low. What does this mean for our fight to avoid serious planetary changes? Read our take here.
14.02.2023: SECOND STRATOSPHERIC WARMING. POSSIBLE MAJOR EVENT.
A second stratospheric warming event began over the North pole, 14th February. Forecast models indicate upper-air wind directions may reverse within 36 hours — which would officially mark a ‘major’ stratospheric warming.
If upper-air wind reversals persist, predictability for surface conditions over UK & N. Europe may be possible.
For comparison: In 2018, during the infamous ‘Beast from the East’ episode, upper-air wind reversals persisted for about 10 days before eventual emergence of cold surface weather about 3 weeks later.
Updates as and when we can.
[ 10hPa obs via JMA/CPD ]
6.02.2023: ESD SEASONAL FORECASTER ESDV3 SERVING 98 REGIONS
As of 06.02.2023 our ESD Seasonal Forecaster [ ESDV3 ] is now providing operational data for 98 regions – enhancing our major client’s resilience to near-term climate volatility.
Protect your business with our cutting-edge digital service: 6 international-class long-range predictive systems, tailored output per user to enable informed decisions. Pro-actively prepare for potential climate risk and minimize the bottom-line risk to your organisation, customers and community. Message us now to learn more.
5.02.2023: SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING WEAKENS
The sudden-stratospheric warming event detected 25.1.2023 appears to be weakening, making a ‘major’ classification – and any influence on surface conditions – unlikely.
Major SSWs have an approximately 30% chance of leading to severe cold conditions over the European sector, the most pronounced recent example being in March 2018.
[Observed time series via JMA CPD lab]
4.02.2023: SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING DETECTION
The first sudden-stratospheric warming of northern-hemisphere winter 2022/2023 has been detected by JMA, originating 25.1.2023.
Current status is a ‘minor event’ — if elevated to ‘major’, predictability for surface conditions over the European sector may be possible for the next 3-to-4 weeks.
3.02.2023: ECWMF-SEASV SIMULATION OF SW-USA COLD ANOMALY
ECMWF-SEASV, one of six systems in our ESDV3 service, simulated southern, cold incursions which dominated south-western USA this week.
The magnitude of the cold anomaly appears mild in the forecast since the forecast is for the month as a whole – the cold snap being ironed out by other parts of the month which were normal.
Long-range forecasts of this type predict average conditions for the month as a whole and are increasing in their predictive skill. They are not, however, designed to indicate when in the month particular events will occur.
31.12.2022: EUROPEAN WARM ANOMALIES CHARACTERISE DECEMBER
North American / European sector, latest run ESD global monitoring code, 22nd December – 31st December 2022.
Expansive European heat conditions, up to 5°C warmer than normal; multiple cities report new maximum temperature records.
Colder-than-normal conditions evident for this time window, central North America, as a result of prevailing air flow [ red marker annotations ], counter-balanced by warm anomalies over Canadian Archipelago.
Context: As with summer heat events, warm anomalies arising from these circulatory patterns – not unusual in themselves – are now being amplified by background planetary heating caused by human modification of the atmosphere.
In line with climate predictions, affected land surfaces are now rapidly transforming to new states: at least 1400 Swiss glaciers have halved in mass since the 1930s.