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ESD Seasonal Forecaster

Example output

A typical set up for the Seasonal Forecaster could include three parts. Part 1 - this page - shows forecast overviews for the geographical area of interest to the client and their two most important variables - mean temperature and total monthly rainfall in this case. In this example, the forecasted months were initialised in October - and the forecast data is for October, Novemeber and December. Each plot is for one of the forecasting systems at the root of our service.
Sections 2 and 3 (above) then provide post-processed climate metrics calculated by the Forecaster, from the raw data, requested by the client for a set of prescribed geoagraphical sub regions.

Temperature anomaly maps: Month 1

UKMO

DWD

METEO_FRANCE

ECMWF

MMM

Rainfall anomaly maps: Month 1

UKMO

DWD

METEO_FRANCE

ECMWF

MMM

Tempearture anomaly maps: Month 2

UKMO

DWD

METEO_FRANCE

ECMWF

MMM

Rainfall anomaly maps: Month 2

UKMO

DWD

METEO_FRANCE

ECMWF

MMM

Temperature anomaly maps: Month 3

UKMO

DWD

METEO_FRANCE

ECMWF

MMM

Rainfall anomaly maps: Month 3

UKMO

DWD

METEO_FRANCE

ECMWF

MMM

2. These files provide processed metrics calculated by the Seasonal Forecaster and requested by the client for each forecast month. In this example, sub-regional absolute values of the raw forecast anomalies are requested: the Seasonal Forecaster combines the raw forecast anomalies with historical, observed data to re-constitute absolute values needed by the client for their decision making. The calculation also removes any bias present in each the forecsating system's raw data. The data are then areally aggregated to match the client's portfolio of sub-regions within the UK. The Seasonal Forecaster can apply this approach to any part of the world.
Output in Section 3 goes one step further to meet the client's needs.

Sub-regions processed: absolute temperature and rainfall: Month 1

UKMO

DWD

METEO_FRANCE

ECMWF

MMM

Sub-regions processed: absolute temperature and rainfall: Month 2

UKMO

DWD

METEO_FRANCE

ECMWF

MMM

Sub-regions processed: absolute temperature and rainfall: Month 3

UKMO

DWD

METEO_FRANCE

ECMWF

MMM

Finally, the Forecaster transforms the monthly output into a plausible daily series of weather for each of the client's sub-regions. It also produces a final metric 'potential evapotranspiration' specifically needed by the client - to enable their in-house planning process. The Forecaster can be configured to derive a multitude of weather and climate parameters to meet your organisation's exact exposures and planning needs.

Daily data: Month 1

UKMO

DWD

METEO_FRANCE

ECMWF

MMM

UKMO_PET

DWD_PET

METEO_FRANCE_PET

ECMWF_PET

MMM_PET

UKMO

DWD

METEO_FRANCE

ECMWF

MMM

UKMO_PET

DWD_PET

METEO_FRANCE_PET

ECMWF_PET

MMM_PET

UKMO

DWD

METEO_FRANCE

ECMWF

MMM

UKMO_PET

DWD_PET

METEO_FRANCE_PET

ECMWF_PET

MMM_PET

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